A statistical look at Russia's qualification campaigns

With a place at Euro 2020 secured and the group set, Russia completed one of its most productive campaigns in reaching a major tournament. 

Over the course of ten matches, the 2018 FIFA World Cup hosts finished in second place behind Belgium in Group I fending off Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, and San Marino to qualify directly for the tournament.

Manager Stanislav Cherchesov called the qualification achievement a “local task,” adding the main goal is to “win the trophy.”

But how does the quest to Euro 2020 compare to the team’s previous qualification campaigns?

Russia has a mixed history of qualifying for tournaments since competing as an independent nation. Starting with the 1994 World Cup qualifiers, the team qualified for nine of the 13 tournaments that took place since then, excluding the automatic qualification for the 2018 World Cup.

During some of the qualification tournaments, Russia qualified in first place with matches to spare while others came down to the last few matches or required tense playoffs.

Qualification campaigns can be measured in various ways including the points accumulated, goals scored, goals conceded, and numerous other statistics.

Looking at the points, Russia amassed 24 points in ten matches from eight wins and two losses in their quest for a spot at the tournament.

With previous qualification campaigns that also featured ten matches, the Euro 1996 qualification campaign ranks first in terms of total points, where Russia earned a total of 26 points from eight wins and two draws to secure first place in the group.

Comparably, similar qualification campaigns involving ten matches ended with different point totals. The 2002 World Cup and Euro 2012 qualification campaigns finished with 22 points while the 2010 and 2014 World Cup qualification campaigns finished with 20 points. The campaigns for the 2016 and 2000 European Championships finished with 20 and 19 points, respectively.

However, not all of these campaigns ended in success. En route to Euro 2000, Russia finished in third place just behind France and Ukraine to miss out on a spot in the playoffs. A decade later, Russia earned a place in the playoffs but only to lose to Slovenia on away goals, narrowly missing out on a spot for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Russia did successfully qualify for the 2002 and 2014 World Cups as well as the 2012 and 2016 European Championships.

Three of Russia’s campaigns featured just eight matches; qualification for the 1994 and 1998 World Cups as well as Euro 2004. However, only two of these campaigns ended successfully with Russia reaching the 1994 and 2004 tournaments. 

Campaigns for a spot at the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 included longer 12 match campaigns. The 2006 campaign ended in failure as Russia finished in third place in their group with 23 points from six wins, five draws, and one loss. Conversely, UEFA abolished the playoffs for the Euro 2008 qualification process, and Russia finished second-place finish with 24 points from seven wins, three draws, and two losses.

The effectiveness of the qualification campaigns can also be measured in terms of the average points per match. The Euro 1996 and Euro 2020 qualification campaigns remain the most effective with 2.60 and 2.40 points per match, respectively, followed by Euro 2012, 2002, and 2014 World Cup campaigns, all three of which ended with 2.30 points per match. The quest for the 1994 World Cup is the least effective with a match average of just 1.50 points. 

Since the qualification campaigns varied in terms of the number of matches played, the scoring and goal concession average is more indicative of the team’s effectiveness.

The Euro 1996 qualification campaign was the most effective with Russia averaging 3.4 goals per match while the 2020 campaign is not far behind with a 3.3 goal average. During both campaigns, Russia played ten matches, scoring 34 and 33 goals respectively and finishing at the top of their group.

All of the other campaigns rank far below with averages ranging from 2.2 during the failed Euro 2000 campaign down to 1.5 during the successful 2008 campaign. The 1994 and 2002 World Cup as well as Euro 2012 qualification campaigns also witnessed among the lowest scoring averages, despite Russia booking a place at each of the respective tournaments.

With goals conceded, the Euro 2020 campaign witnessed the team let through an average of 0.80 goals per match. The Euro 2012 qualification campaign had the lowest average with 0.40 per match along with the Euro 1996 and 2016 campaigns having a slightly higher average of 0.50 goals per match. 

By contrast, during the Euro 2004 qualification campaign, Russia conceded the greatest amount of goals with an average of 1.50 while the Euro 2000 and 2006 World Cup qualification campaigns averaging 1.20 and 1.00, respectively.

The qualification campaigns also featured varying numbers of scorers and players used, excluding those called up after the conclusion of the qualification campaign. 

En route to Euro 2020, Cherchesov utilized 29 players, with 14 of them making the scoresheet.

By comparison, Boris Ignatiev, who oversaw Russia during the 1998 World Cup qualifiers, used the most of any qualification campaign, a total of 38 players with 13 scoring goals in their unsuccessful attempt to reach the tournament. Dick Advocaat, who oversaw the team in its journey to Euro 2012, used just 23 players, the least of any campaign, with nine of them scoring goals.

Oleg Romanstev, who oversaw the Euro 1996 qualification campaign, produced 16 scorers out of 28 players, the most of any campaign.

A few of the campaigns also witnessed coaching changes. En route to Euro 2004, Georgi Yartsev replaced Valery Gazzaev midway through the campaign, which utilized 34 players. Similarly, Fabio Capello and Leonid Slutsky also used 34 players in a campaign that included a similar coaching change.

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